Although the recent official visit of Indian Foreign Minister S. M. Krishna was largely taken up with pushing forward many of the decisions reached during Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal’s official visit to India in August 2009, it was overshadowed by the tortured relations between the UCPN (Maoist) and the Indian government.MIXED BAG
In concrete terms, the Krishna visit, at the invitation of the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sujata Koirala, resulted in signature on four MoUs, varying from that concerning construction of Tarai roads and a Science Learning Centre to that between the Nepal Stock Exchange Limited and the Central Depository Service (India) Ltd, not to mention the electrification of five VDCs in Rupendehi district.
Expectations raised vis-à-vis awarding a greater number of scholarships for Nepalese students for higher studies in India, the construction of the Mahendranagar-Tanakpur link road and assistance for the construction of two suspension bridges in the Far-Western region seem not to have been realized.
Assurances by India in nudging Thimphu to adopt a more reasonable stance with regard to the Lhotshampas than it has in the past do not seem to have been forthcoming, either.
Also notable is that despite the widely-held earlier perception that a Police Academy would be set up with Indian assistance in Banepa, all that the visit produced was agreement to expedite the finalization of the relevant MoU.
MEETINGS, ETC
As expected, there were meetings between Krishna and President Dr. Ram Baran Yadav, to whom a formal invitation for an official visit to India next month was handed over; with Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal; with the President of the Nepali Congress Girija Prasad Koirala; with Speaker Subash Nemwang; and, of course, with the full panoply of Madeshi politicos.
Beyond all that, and as made out in public, the two sides reaffirmed their commitment to promote bilateral cooperation in the hydro-power sector, as also the obligatory kowtow to the imperative of cooperating closely to end the menace of terrorism and extremism, a threat to both the countries.
The two sides, to no one’s surprise, discussed ways to enhance bilateral security cooperation to control cross-border crimes such as smuggling of fake Indian currency, human trafficking and arms smuggling – the efficacy of which, in the weeks and months to come – will, no doubt, be severely tested.
Much more significant is Krishna’s assurance that India is willing to provide all possible assistance to Nepalese security agencies as per the request of the government of Nepal. Although the term ‘Nepal Army’ has not apparently been invoked, clearly it is not excluded in that formulation.
Such an assurance acquires acute import in the context of the Maoists’ well-known opposition to supply of military equipment and hardware to the Nepal Army, as was incidentally highlighted by their boycott of the House on Monday.
Furthermore, despite the decision to have the two foreign secretaries look into the matter of review of the 1950 Treaty – a formulation that has been bandied about for years without result – the Treaty is not likely to be reviewed, or rejected, anytime soon due to a lack of political consensus in Nepal.
Notable, too, is that the Extradition Treaty pushed ardently by India for years was not finalized, as admitted by Krishna. In fact, given the unenviable state of play in the Maoist-India relations arena it is difficult – nay, impossible – to imagine that it ever will.
PRACHANDA-KRISHNA
Coming, now, to what was the most important aspect of the visit – although unacknowledged as such in the joint press statement released after the visit – let me point out a number of smoke signals that the Maoists transmitted on the eve of the visit.
First, Prachanda altered his announced plans to visit Kalapani, among the most emotive and controversial issue on the Nepal-India relations checkerboard, deciding instead to be available in Kathmandu for a meeting with Krishna.
Against the backdrop of the bile and vituperation of the ‘fourth phase’ of the Maoists’ ‘independence’ (read anti-India) campaign, it was probably read in New Delhi as a weakening of the Maoists’ will. That, I’d say, paved the way for a powwow at Dwarika’s Hotel, not the most secure location for housing a visiting VVIP, especially in these turbulent times.
Second, despite Prachanda’s status as chairman of the largest party in Nepal, the leader of the Opposition and a former prime minister, it was he who went calling, not the other way around! Hence, there was no need for a great security bandobast – as they say in India – at Dwarika’s, or anywhere else.
That Prachanda agreed to such a craven arrangement – knowing that Krishna would call on NC president, Girija Prasad Koirala, at his residence – no doubt further encouraged India to believe that he was wavering on deciding whether or not to charge on regardless on the ‘independence’ track.
Thirdly, while Prachanda was accompanied only by Krishna Bahadur Mahara, the Indian Ambassador saw to it that at his dinner in his boss’ honour the same evening, both Baburam Bhattarai and Narayan Kazi Shrestha, long associated in the public mind as being intimate with India, were not left out in the political cold.
Doubtless in the secure and discreet ambience of the Ambassador’s residence, set within the spacious, verdant and groomed grounds of the Indian Embassy, another set of Maoist-India parleys took place, perhaps before the quotidian business of dinner got underway.
Anyway, the above ingredients surely add delicious grist to the speculation mill about a deep divide within the Maoist movement, particularly between groupings considered “pro-India” and “nationalist” – and India’s transparent interest in accelerating the parting-of-ways process.
In fact, clued up analysts believe that while in public both Bhattarai and Shrestha are still beating the anti-India tom-tom, that is only because they, at this time, lack the necessary strength to formally or safely break away from the ‘nationalist’ faction.
WHAT NOW?
Segments of the media have suggested that a kiss-and-make-up phase is about to dawn between the Maoists and India. Far more telling, in my view, is that in the evening following P-K talks, India’s Ministry of External Affairs in statement informed the world that Krishna expressed his “deep disappointment at the baseless attacks on India by the Maoist leadership which vitiate the age-old and time-tested friendly relations between India and Nepal and the people of the two countries. Such baseless propaganda has a negative impact on Indian public opinion.”
Equally noteworthy is Prachanda’s hard hitting comments vis-à-vis India, while speaking before the party faithful in Diktel the next day. As reported on the front page of the Maoist vernacular daily Janadisha, the leading Maoist commissar roared,
“Although the United Nations, the European Union and the majority of the international community are in favour of the peace process in Nepal succeeding, in bringing in the Maoists, and are prepared to assist in the process, India is opposed.”
Going further, the Maoist boss held that dark clouds were hovering over Nepal’s independence given that at a time when government ministers are arguing against inclusion of ex-PLA combatants in the Army, even the Indian Army chief Gen. Deepak Kapoor has publicly spoken out against it.
On the other hand, Mahara, speaking in Kathmandu on the same day, attempted to put a positive spin to the outcome of the P-K dialogue saying, according to the Himalayan Times, although the Indian team felt uncomfortable with Maoist activities, they were “positive” about arranging a high level meeting.
Yet, according to Janadisha, Mahara indicated that their ‘movement’ would not be halted since Foreign Minister Krishna’s visit did not result in any political outcome, as far as their demands were concerned. As per the Kathmandu Post, Mahara was quoted as disclosing that Krishna had asked for the current Maoist campaign to be withdrawn.
It is thus unlikely that the talks that the Maoists desire with New Delhi will come to pass – not unless they agree to India’s terms.
GEN. KAPOOR
That assessment is bolstered by that fact that the visit of Gen. Kapoor, against whom the Maoists have bitterly lashed out, has not only followed on Krishna’s heels but that he has been lavishly feted, pampered and honoured by the President. (See also Worldview, p. 8.)
It is probably significant that his visit was brought forward, timing it virtually immediately after Krishna’s, which curiously did not include even one public speaking engagement. Was it because Krishna was loath to face an informed, questioning audience?
What will be hard for Maoists to swallow is that India is ready to accord a warm welcome to President Yadav, reviled and kicked around by their leaders, cadres and media for more than eight months now.
Taken all together, the Maoists have without doubt received the short end of the Indian stick. How they will react, and whether they will remain one integrated whole for long, remains to be seen, of course.
But, as far as the Krishna visit goes, their presence, absence, activities and utterances clearly overshadowed it.
(The writer can be reached at: Email: mrjosse<at>gmail.com)
