The political impasse continues as it has done for such a long time, and there are little indications that any improvements will be seen in the near future. In fact political observers are predicting that there will be no results even after a sixth round of voting in the Constituent assembly to elect a new Prime Minister next week., But again, who knows?
But for now, the alarming thing is, there seems to be increasing pressure on the present “lame duck” government led by a totally confused looking Prime Minister, who is not in control, of either the nation nor the ministers of different parties under him by outsiders who have their own axe to grind.
The seeming lack of law and order in the Terai region and even Kathmandu, the escalating market prices, lack of control over government agencies, constant disturbances in the academic sector and specially the blatant intervention of foreign powers all manifest the virtual non-presence of the government. If the government was weak in giving a sense of security to the people when it was still in power, it can be imagined what the situation is now when Madhav Kumar Nepal is just a "caretaker Prime Minister". At least when the Maoist was leading the government, it seemed to have better control over things.
But now the UCPN (Maoist) also seems to be facing a testing period, with party Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal facing a slowly increasing opposition within his own party. None other than his two deputies, Mohan Baidya "Kiran" and Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai have challenged Dahal's political document and presented their own documents in the Central Committee of the party.
The biggest political setback for Dahal probably has come in the form of the humiliating defeats he has had to see in his effort to succeed Madhav Nepal as Prime Minister. The man who was feared throughout the country while his party was waging the Peoples' War, and even after he came out in public, now has been transformed into just another simple politician scrambling unsuccessfully to be Prime Minister.
The candidate for PM from the Nepali Congress side, Ram Chandra Poudel is also facing the same fate, but he never had the political stature that Dahal once had.
But apart from the race to be the next Prime Minister and the continuous political stalemate that the nation has been witness to, political observers are also pointing out the growing differences within the top three political parties in the Constituent Assembly, namely the UCPN (Maoist), the Nepali Congress and the CPN (UML).
The Maoist leaders who boasted that they would encompass all the communist parties in the country within itself, are themselves engaged in a grim struggle and a clear triangular rift between the three top leaders has been seen.
The Nepali Congress, which is about to host its 12th National Convention, is also seeing the emergence of partisan politics within the party. A highly placed source within the party revealed that the surprise contender for the post of party President, Bhim Bahadur Tamang, has actually been backed by close members of the Girija prasad Koirala clique. Tamang's challenge for the top post has come as a big jolt for both Sher Bahadur Deuba and Sushil Koirala, the latter, who almost was the de facto President of the party even when Girija Prasad was alive. Meanwhile, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who once split the party, is quietly watching from the sidelines, but it is not clear whether the events during the national Convention will lead to yet another split in this party.
Other sources within the party also say that Tamang and Narhari Acharya, both not that popular leaders, have been put forth, just to cut the votes of Deuba.
The CPN (UML) has fared no better. In fact "caretaker" Prime Minister Madhav Nepal has constantly complained of how he was unfairly forced to resign due to the pressure from his own party colleagues. He communist parties are well known for their ability to break-up and the UML has also suffered from this pain just over a decade back. "There are clear signals that the party could once more split up," said a senior journalist close to the party.
After these three major parties, the Madhes based parties are the biggest group, which could swing the votes in the Prime Ministerial race next week. But as was manifested in one election for the Prime Minister, the Madhes parties too are not immune from the "splitsville syndrome".
This fragile political situation has given ample fertile ground for foreign powers, and even a simple United Nations agency, to play their own games here.
That this does not bode well for this turmoil and intervention ridden country, the ordinary people feel, but there are others, including what one former Monarchist minister described as "monopolistic" parties, the dollar earning leaders of the "civil society" and also some sections of the media, who were "partners with the monopolistic parties".