By Our Reporter
Although the left alliance swept the elections both in the federal and provincial levels, the two parties have been suspicious about each other.
The comments of UML general secretary Ishwor Pokharel that a single person should be the PM, leader of the parliamentary party and party chief have made the Maoist Centre suspicious about the implementation of the agreement reached between the two parties.
With this new development, a new debate whether a new government by bypassing the UML can be formed. If the NC, MC and the two-Madhes-based parties stand together, they will have enough lawmakers to form a majority government. And unbelievable swing made by Pushpa Kamal Dahal in the past has further fueled this type of speculations.
However, chance of forming a new government putting the UML that has won 121 seats outside looks impossible.
Instead, there are rumours that the UML can form a government without MC if the two parties grow differences. Sources said that the Federal Socialist Forum Nepal of Upendra Yadav was likely to join the UML to form a majority government.
The two parties will have 138 members, a simple majority to form the government, as the FSFN is likely to have 17 members in the lower House.
A section of the Madhesi scholars have already started speculating an alliance between Upendra Yadav’s party and UML.
However, one has to wait a few more weeks to know the reality.
NC was not actually defeated in the election as NC’s votes received during the last CA and during the local elections have no drastic difference.
If viewed the Proportional Election result, NC is neck-to-neck with the UML. In this regard, if the UML and Maoist Center had not developed election alliance, NC would not have lost election in a shameful manner.
NC had undermined the UML-Maoist Center election alliance. NC leaders had felt that even after development of alliance between the UML and Maoist Center, the voters from both the parties will not vote for the UML and Maoists’ common candidates. But UML and Maoist leaders were able to convey the unification message to the grassroots level voters and voters from both the parties casted their votes to common candidates. This is the main reason behind the shameful defeat of the NC in the direct election.
Under the NC, a democratic alliance was forged but it was not effective as the Left alliance.
NC denied to develop an alliance with the Tarai based parties when the two tarai based parties put forward the proposal of sharing 33 percent seats by FSF and RJP-N each and giving 33 percent seats to the NC.
NC, which had felt No 2 province as its vote bank, denied to develop an alliance with the Tarai parties. Here too, NC’s heavy weight leaders had to face defeat. If NC had accepted 33 percent of the seats, NC had not to face defeat in No 2 province.
NC leaders Bimalendra Nidhi, Krishna Shitaula and others felt that they are popular in their constituencies and denied to accept this alliance proposal from the tarai parties. These candidates faced defeat in the election.
In No 2 province, it has strong influence has been seen of the Indians. FSF and RJP-N have captured the No 2 province. RJP-N is close to India but FSF is not close to India but expected to be close to the West. Except from No 2 province, there is strong domination of anti-Indian Left alliance.
Indians had predicted that NC will not face such a defeat. At least in No 4 province and No 7 province, NC would form the government, Indians had expected.
India imposed economic blockade during the Tarai uprising which further intensified anti-Indian sentiment among the Nepalis. This has been reflected in this election.
NC is an old and big party having many leaders. But the party is divided into two major factions – Koirala camp led by Ramchandra Poudel and Deuba camp led by PM Deuba. Besides, there are other sub groups. One group is led by Dr Sekhar Koirala, Dr Shashank Koirala which doesn’t like emergence of RamchandraPoudel. In the meantime, there are other small groups one led by Khum Bahadur Khadka, another led by Krishna Shitaula. There is strong rivalry among these groups and sub groups which want to finish another group. Ramchandra Poudel was defeated as Govindaraj Joshi, another leader of NC campaigned against Poudel. Similarly, such incidents occurred in different constituencies also.
Weak intelligence report:
PM Deuba was totally relied on the intelligence report that he used to receive funds from the Home Ministry. Deuba was able to secure his victory after a strong struggle but he was unable to secure the victory of his wife Dr Arju Deuba. If Deuba had received good intelligence report, he would do every effort for the victory of his wife.
PM Deuba is also the president of the NC. After being elected to the post of the party president, Deuba has been unable to give final shape to his party as he has not nominated many office bearers.
Deuba has no vision except from strengthening his own group.
The Deuba led government has been involved in rampant corruption, controversial decisions such as impeachment against CIAA chief, chief justice, appointment of the Nepal Police IGP, among others. Such acts have given a negative message to the voters.
To conclude, although, having such cons, NC exists as a mass based party and the party has not been totally finished. The mandate received by the party to remain as a strong opposition is there.