• Friday 28th February 2020

India kills SAARC, economic blockade likely; Russia-Pak-China axis in making

  • Published on: June 12, 2019

  • By NP Upadhdhya
    Nepal expects the imposition of yet another economic blockade a la 2015 though this nation is being ruled by a massive majority of the India elevated leaders(?) who have in some way or the other tacit linkages with the BJP regime in India and in addition with the now decimated Indian congress (through Shyam Saran).
    However, the religions Nepal and ruling India practice differ to a great extent.
    India believes in BJP defined Hindu terror principles then Nepal now heavily relies on the Holy Wine theory and takes it as the engine of growth.
    Though the politics is Indo-centric so one has the right to ask why then the country should be scared of a possible blockade if the leaders running the nation were Indo-pendent ones?
    The reason is simple. India prefers Nepal now to kneel down a la baby Bhutan, which is the declared protectorate of India. Very freshly the Maldives too has apparently joined the club of the Indian protectorates.
    India wants to declare itself the “boss” of the region but doesn’t qualify.
    Nepal already has knelt down as demanded by India but prefers the world must not know that it virtually is a 12 point country as formulated and drafted for the comfort of the Nepali people by India’s foreign secretary Shyam Saran in the year of 2005-6 movement which was once again an India funded and sponsored one.
    The Indian grip is expected to increase in the days ahead. If PM Modi is around then Nepal needs no enemies. China’s commitment towards Nepal hangs in balance for it is not the Chairman Mao’s era.
    In fact, PM Oli during his fresh India visit set the tone for a fresh economic blockade when he told Ms. Geeta Mohan of the India Today, June 1, 2019, that “As the Chair, Nepal wants to revive SAARC and make it effective again. Developing relations in the region is better than anything else”.
    Definitely PM Oli spoke what India would not want even to listen from the junior and “inferior” leaders of the South Asian region Oli included.
    Thus the ground for a fresh blockade has been prepared by the nation itself which expects the attack. PM Oli is again the loser. Will China help Nepal this time even on moral grounds?
    As if this were not enough, the Nepalese Ambassador to “Modi’s court”, Mr. Nilambar Acharya talking to the Times of India, June 8, 2019, added a pinch of the citric-iodized-salt to the Modi wound by stating that “BIMSTEC can’t be a substitute for the SAARC”.
    The Nepali Ambassador Mr. Acharya’s blunt remarks made in favor of the dying SAARC must have been taken by the Modi disciples (taken as Bhakts by Ashok Swain, a Swedish Professor of Indian origin) inside the South Block as a direct affront from Nepal-an emerging protectorate of the Indian establishment, to the mighty regional Goliath that India has proved for herself.
    Sharp political brains in Kathmandu have now valid reasons to speculate PM Oli’s numbered days in government in that Nepal Prime Minister has talked against the will of the naughty self-declared boss of the South Asian region and it is quite natural that Comrade Prachanda should exploit this possible Modi’s wrath on PM Oli. Prachanda is an all-weather friend of India.
    But he is talked to be in a panicked mood the day he heard from Australian envoy that Nepal’s war time criminals could be arrested by the democratic countries if and when they leave Nepal for a foreign tour.
    And Lenin Bista has reportedly registered his case in the Hague Tribunal against Prachanda and Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai for abusing the under age children for war purposes.
    But yet sources claim that Comrade Prachanda, is all set to replace PM Oli if things go as per the structured designs of the Modi government. He though remains in a panic ked state listening to Australian envoy’s subtle warning. He hopes that Delhi will come to his rescue from the threat of the Hague Tribunal.
    The other Maoists leader sheltered in Delhi Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai upon receiving clear signals from the South Block has already announced that he prefers now some eleven provinces in Nepal. This means that Dr. Bhattarai is prepared to throw this nation once again to the mercy of the chaotic forces. He says the previous “Delhi’s sponsored revolution” is yet incomplete and thus the need is for yet another Delhi engineered revolution.
    Modi needs just to send signals to the RAW agents in Kathmandu who shall accomplish the rest of the tasks assigned by the agency which is to replace Oli with Comrade Prachanda – the trusted man of late Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
    So hints the Communist veteran Chitra Bahadur KC in his fresh talk with one of the TV Channels in Kathmandu. KC thinks that PM Oli has limited days in government because he has compromised even on issues of national dignity.
    But what of Ambassador Acharya?
    Many believe that Mr. Acharya was the preferred person of the Indian regime and so PM Oli have had to send Mr. Acharya to Delhi as Nepal’s Ambassador.
    Whether Acharya is a close person of the Delhi regime or not makes little sense for this story, however, what matters for Nepal is that Ambassador Acharya has talked sense and rightly ventilated the Nepali stand points of the SAARC body.
    In fact, BIMSTEC can in no way replace SAARC and the BIMSTEC must not be allowed to substitute as stated by Ambassador Acharya.
    Even one influential Indian leader of North India, Ms. Mayawati, says that “whatever Nepali Ambassador has talked about SAARC is logical in that “BIMSTEC can’t substitute the SAARC regional body”. She differs with Modi on political grounds.
    In a subtle manner the newly appointed foreign minister S. Jaishankar, last Thursday has said that since the regional body SAARC has problems, and that BIMSTEC leaders were invited for swearing-in of Prime Minister Narendra Modi last month because there is energy, mindset and possibility in latter’s regional grouping which fits in with India’s very optimistic vision of economic cooperation.
    He however, did not admit that the problems that the SAARC have had, as claimed by him, were all the creation of India’s own and that his oblique reference to Pakistan was just a structured way to exclude ignore the rival nation and then declare that SAARC is dead and thus beat the drums in favor of the Indian tail-the BIMSTEC.
    To put it straight, he was speaking a white lie at his first public engagement at the Growth Net Summit of public policy group Ananta Aspen Centre on June 6, writes Pallab Bhattacharya, for the Daily Star dated June 10, 2019, the new foreign minister of India Mr. Shankar talked about BIMSTEC as the centerpiece of New Delhi’s “neighborhood first” approach.
    He together with PM Modi have made it a point that ‘SAARC must die and BIMSTEC’ need to dominate the South Asian political landscape and that those who prefer SAARC need to be scolded as is the Indian habit. Isn’t it enough to predict that bad days for Nepal are already in the pipeline?
    By the way, Minister Jayshankar is expected to terrify the entire South Asian region with his arrogant behavior that he exhibited during his Nepal visit last time prior to the imposition of the blockade. WE have been told that Mr. Shankar tentatively threatened the Nepali political animals to act as per his dictates or face consequences. No generosity to him.
    And this terror machine is the foreign minister of India. Bear with this terror instrument.
    Has China together with Pakistan encouraged PM Oli once again to speak what pains Delhi? Is this a Chinese game plan? It is how the Indians have been thinking which is not true.
    It is here that Pakistan’s diplomacy should have been smart enough and continuously at work in a visible manner but the ground reality is that it is not only dismal but nonexistent in the South Asian scheme of things which in many more ways than one shall time permitting boomerang on Pakistan’s ties with its former South Asian neighbors if SAARC is forcefully made to die by the Indian regime? A strong Pakistan the South Asian nations need for multiple reasons.
    SAARC is perhaps the only link that connects Pakistan with other South Asian nation including Nepal.
    Nepal PM is being told to shift his abode to Pakistan or China by some Indian intellectuals for his SAARC remarks made in Delhi.
    Neither Pakistan government nor its media nor even its China tilted intellectuals talk or ventilate their feelings in favor of the SAARC which allows the Indian leadership to twist their version on SAARC.
    BIMSTEC shall ultimately dump the SAARC if China and Pakistan continue to remain tight lipped.
    But yet, Nepal’s perception on SAARC is clear and that being that BIMSTEC can’t and shouldn’t be allowed to substitute the SAARC.
    Had Pakistan been an intelligent partner having the needed diplomatic acumen, it would have already proposed for a new SAARC with China, and Afghanistan but minus India.
    The rest of the neighbors Bhutan and now Maldives be left to decide on their own whether they prefer to remain associated with the SAARC or wished the premature death of the SAARC?
    Bangladesh as one of the founding fathers of the SAARC body must be told to remain in the SAARC for multiple political reasons. Nepal and Bangladesh are the founding fathers of the SAARC body.
    China which has only an “Observer” status currently in the SAARC (and that too due to the kind courtesy of former King Gyanendra but later the King was ditched by China when he needed China most) should now be elevated to a formal-executive member of the SAARC much similar to the ranks of what is Nepal and Bangladesh today in the SAARC entity.
    In fact, if India can moot an idea of BIMSTEC then why not the countries other than India think of a SAARC with China plus and concurrently minus India?
    Interestingly, while the Indian media have been spitting venom against Nepal and its envoy in Delhi for having favored the SAARC, the other countries such as, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Bhutan have kept a silence? This is mysterious.
    Okay. Let’s assume that Bhutan and Maldives have gone into the fold of the Indian regime then what of Pakistan and Bangladesh and Sri Lanka?
    Or is it that Sri Lanka too has freshly been seduced by newly elected PM Modi?
    The Sri Lankan President is on record to have freshly appealed his countrymen to remain united to avert the threat of the emergence of yet another “Pravakaran”. This has some hint for the Indian regime.
    Did Modi get the point on why the Sri Lankan President uttered the name of Pravakaran? He must have understood the inner meaning of the President’s hint that was definitely aimed at PM Modi’s India for having created the Tiger terror in the Island nation which continued for at least three decades. Thanks Mahinda Rajpaksa who wiped this sponsored terror out from the country’s political scene.
    It is time that Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan speak in favor of the SAARC or else Nepal, as the current Chair of the regional body, will be a lone “Bahadur-Choukidar” who has lost its way deep inside the wild jungles.
    China must come forward in the name of Nepali population even if it suspects PM Oli’s political credentials. China’s knows the inclinations of PM Oli. Oli can’t be a real friend of China. Rest assured.
    Pakistan, among others, has adopted a soft and quiet diplomacy as against the aggressive diplomacy now acquired by the Indian establishment more so after the resounding victory of the Hindu terror machine, as the BJP is generally taken in majority Hindu country.
    Nepali Hindus for example, differ distinctly with the Hindus in India. So had said Dr. Shireen Mazari, now a minister in Khan’s cabinet, some fifteen years ago in a newspaper edited by her in Islamabad.
    Nepali Hindus believe in “tolerance” and mix with other religions easily.
    The Indian diplomacy has taken a new pseudo rhetoric which talks of “being more generous” to the neighbors but the generosity will not match with what once was known as the Gujral Doctrine which was just made a slogan to please Inder Kumar Gujral who was later arm twisted by his own bureaucrats thus his Doctrine was an abject failure.
    Veteran diplomat turned BJP politician, S Jayshankar assured baby Bhutan the other day that India would be generous to its smaller neighbors. If so then will India allow Bhutan to open its diplomatic mission in Nepal or China? If not then generosity in words has no meaning. But a terrified Bhutan has no other options other than to yield to the dictates of the Indian coercive machine.
    PM Modi too repeated the same rhetoric while he was seducing the Maldivian President and later sent the same vibes while meeting the scared Sri Lankan President in Colombo.
    PM Modi was on a tour to those South Asian countries whom Delhi thinks that they might any time jump to the side of China leaving India to weep alone in the deep blue ocean.
    So he opted to consolidate his ties with Maldives and a joint statement, June 8, 2019, was issued which says in part, “The two leaders (PM Modi and President Ibrahim Mohamad Solih) agreed on the importance of maintaining peace and security in the Indian Ocean Region, and to strengthen coordination in enhancing maritime security in the region, through coordinated patrolling and aerial surveillance, exchange of information, and capacity building,” the joint statement said.
    PM Modi hopefully coerced the Maldivian President and managed to insert the Maldivian commitment of “India first policy” in the joint statement issued upon completion of the visit to Male.
    With this commitment, the Maldives is in the lap of the Indian regime at least for some time now. Male inching closer to India benefits the Indo-Pacific strategy.
    And Sri Lanka, which has been trying very hard to balance both the Asian giants, also seems to have moved back towards New Delhi since the defeat of Rajapaksa in January 2015.
    This does mean that Colombo has preferred a distance with the Chinese regime? How China takes up this political issue shall be no less than interesting. What shall be the fate of the Hambantota port then?
    Yet China’s residual influence in Sri Lanka makes India anxious because New Delhi considers the Indian Ocean region plus the entire South Asian region excluding Pakistan to be its strategic backyard.
    India as the boss of the Indo-Pacific strategy for this part of the world, Modi’s seduction of Sri Lanka and Maldives shall mean much for the US and its Pacific strategy for multiple reasons.
    Clearly, China’s loss is gain for India and the US in this region.
    In sum, India has now Bhutan, the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and to a greater extent Nepal also in the fold or say in complete control of the BJP led India ruled by PM Modi.
    This adds to the strength of the Indo-Pacific Strategy led in South Asia by India under PM Modi and his lieutenant Mr. S Jayshankar.
    A tough time for China and then Pakistan in many more ways than one. The message is not that much encouraging for the CPEC also. Minister Shankar shall terrify the entire smaller neighbors as he did with Nepal some three years ago.
    Pakistan for one, wishes normalcy in its ties with India and so had been the sudden appearance of the newly appointed Foreign Secretary in Delhi at time of Eid. This visit must have yielded positive results both for India and Pakistan.
    Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan on Friday, June 8, 2019, wrote a letter to his Indian counterpart Modi for resumption of dialogue to settle reconcilable problems.
    In a letter to Modi congratulating him on his second term as prime minister, Imran wrote that Pakistan desires the resolution of all problems, including that of the disputed Kashmir region, the Geo TV reported.
    In response Modi just said that he too wanted peace.
    In the meantime, PM Modi sought Air route permission from Pakistan in order to fly to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meet, June 12-14, to be held in BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan.
    While PM Modi is all set to meet President Xi Jinping, PM Khan’s talks with the Russian President Putin has been confirmed, sources have said.
    PM Khan is meeting Vladimir Putin on June 14, on the sidelines of the 19th SCO meet.
    In what is being talked as a major success for Pakistan in the diplomatic front, Khan is expected to extend a formal invitation to President Putin to visit his country.
    China and Russia are in good terms which is a source of annoyance to both India and the US.
    Per chance Pakistan enjoys comfortable relations with both China and Russia. Pakistan needs to expand its ties with Russia and benefit from the Russian advanced technologies.
    Writes Sabah Aslam June 10, 2019, for the Daily Times that “In the last few years, Moscow has emerged as a major stakeholder in South Asian politics. Sometimes, Moscow has even de-escalated tensions between the two nuke-armed countries, Pakistan and India, proving its intentions towards peace in the region.
    During the recent tensions between India and Pakistan that brought them to the brink of war, Moscow offered to be a mediator. This offer was warmly welcomed by Pakistan, so wrote Mr. Aslam.
    Thus it is in the interest and benefit of the South Asian nations that Pakistan enhances its already excellent relations with the Russian Federation. Perhaps Moscow too is willing to keep stability in and around the South Asian region.
    To boot, Moscow can help Pakistan in restoration of peace in the troubled Afghanistan. If it is so then China too would be more than willing to assist Pakistan to maintain peace in Afghanistan and the nearby central Asian region. Moscow knows it better on why to help Pakistan because Russia, the de facto and the de jure successor of the former USSR, has been ditched by the Indian regime. Just recall the days of Indira Gandhi and the security pact with the USSR that India had signed.
    After the collapse of the USSR, India went to the fold of the US.
    Similarly, PM Khan and the Chinese strongman Xi Jinping are most likely to meet on June 13 on the sidelines of the SCO meet of the Council of Heads of State.
    It would be a great diplomatic feat if Pakistan brings China and Russia together and strikes a sort of working relations with these two powerful countries then at least South Asian region shall remain stable and peaceful.
    China and Russia perhaps too have felt that balance of power must be maintained in this part of the world.
    Khan’s meet with the Indian PM is unlikely as the Pak foreign Secretary may have already held talks with the appropriate authorities while being in Delhi last week. That’s all.


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