By Shanker Man Singh
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assumed office for the third term. Our Prime Minister Pushpakamal Dahal attended the oath ceremony that took place on Sunday, 9 June.
Modi’s party BJP could not get the necessary majority of 273 seats, yet, the National Democratic Alliance led by Modi bagged a majority and Modi became the PM of a coalition government.
Despite the “exit” polls predicting a Modi comeback with above 300 BJP seats proved false.
The Strategic Group of Secretaries has presented a comprehensive plan for “Development India by 2047” which will put it on a fast track for implementation once the new government assumes office.
In an interview with India Today during the election campaign, Prime Minister Modi said, “Now I have a new idea, and that is to plan for 125 days instead of 100 days. Adding those 25 days is for the youth”.
“In 2014, I had a five-year manifesto. In 2019, I drew some attention to the global picture. In 2024, my thinking is a bit bigger and long-term”.
“I have been working on it for the past 5 years. For India 2047. Two generations of officers retired while working on this vision document. There must have been and many new people have come,” Modi had said.
Modi is an ambitious leader who can take any popular decision to maintain good relations with neighboring countries. Some believe that the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, and the Bay of Bengal Effort for Multilateral Technical and Economic Cooperation, will mean stability in the region.
Nepal will not directly benefit from this activity. If Nepal fails to prove that it is a good investment destination, capital and investment may go to India.
In Nepal, the development of an enabling environment for infrastructure development is still a dream, and not good for doing business.
Even domestic investors are not satisfied, let alone foreign investors. Some people believe that India’s election results will have a minimal impact on Nepal’s economy.
Due to India’s high growth rate, its “spillover” effect can be positive on the overall development of Nepal. In terms of attracting foreign direct investment, India is not a rival of Nepal, because most of the investment is in the hydropower and service sector rather than in the manufacturing sector.
Elections in neighboring India are important for the government and the people of Nepal. It is also said that although Modi’s government started the relationship with Kathmandu at a high level, by the end of his ten years in office, this relationship has become less than satisfactory some opine.
A cursory review of the history clearly shows that there have been many problems in Nepal-India relations since Nepal promulgated its constitution in 2015. India imposed a long, painful economic blockade on Nepal, accusing it of not enshrining New Delhi’s interests in its constitution.
After one year, due to the demonetization of Indian currency notes of 500 and 1000 rupees, there is some discomfort in Nepal. In a cursory review of history, the people of Nepal have lost a huge amount of money due to the lack of adequate facilities in Nepal.
Despite India’s commitment, the Reserve Bank of India has failed to resolve the issue with its Nepali counterpart Nepal Rastra Bank.
The task of the re-elected Prime Minister Modi is to receive the report prepared by the Nepal-India Group of Eminent Persons a few years ago.
The group, formed in 2016, prepared a detailed report on how to resolve issues related to bilateral relations, completing the report in July 2018. It includes the opinions of experts.
Since Modi first came to power in 2014, the nationalist prime minister has visited Nepal four times, seemingly in line with his much-publicised “neighbor-first” policy. The future of the 19th Summit of the SAARC is also in chaos following the growing tension between India and Pakistan.
No two neighboring countries have such a close and complex relationship as Nepal and India. His visit to Nepal was a stepping stone in the relationship between the two countries.
We hope for generosity from India to convey the message that the international image of India, which is advancing towards becoming a superpower, can only be enhanced through stability and development in the neighborhood. For that, Nepal should be able to do the necessary homework and clearly state its issues. Since Modi is re-elected as Prime Minister by advancing the agenda of corruption control, economic prosperity, development and employment, it can have a very positive impact on neighboring countries like Nepal, which has open borders with India.
Experts argue that since many top leaders including Chandrababu Nayadu and Nitish from other than Bharatiya Janata Party’s NDA are familiar faces to Nepal, the political leadership here should take advantage.
Our leadership in Nepal should try to win the goodwill of the well-known leaders in India to address the problems seen in the field of Nepal increasing commodity exports, promoting infrastructure development and addressing marketing barriers in trade.
Nepal should seek support to speed up the establishment and process of a Special Economic Zone. Although Nepal should make extensive use of the economic and business opportunities available in India, it has not been able to do so due to complex rules and problems including lack of energy, weak productive capacity, inadequate infrastructure, low foreign investment, and inefficient trade facilitation infrastructure.
It is said that ten years ago the South Block and RAW were filled with people close to the Indian Congress. In the last ten years, they have been replaced by people from BJP. The officials there are working in the interest of BJP. Some hold the opinion that after the political changes of 1990, Indian activity has intensified and now political leaders are working for Indian interests rather than the interests of Nepal and the Nepalese people.
India is blamed for planning to bring Nepal and other small countries under the Indian security umbrella. The indivisible India mural on Parliament House speaks volumes. According to the experts in Nepal-India affairs, Nepal has an open border of more than 1800 kilometers with India, and the ongoing debate in Nepal is being watched with interest and concern.
A change in the government in India will have no significant difference in its foreign policy, however, there was ease during the prime ministership of IK Gujral and the tenure of Chandra Sekhar.
Some people seem to believe that the royalists in Nepal will be happy that the NDA with the BJP will come to the government. In fact, in India’s foreign policy, there is not much difference between the parties there towards Nepal.
In the past, during the Indian Congress government, even in 1989/90, a blockade was imposed on Nepal.
India’s policy towards Nepal has both positive and negative effects on Nepal’s economic growth, and it is a complex relationship influenced by historical, geopolitical and economic factors. India has historically been Nepal’s largest trading partner, and this relationship has facilitated the flow of goods and services between the two countries.
An open border between Nepal and India allows for easy trade, benefiting Nepal’s economy. India has provided foreign aid and investment to support Nepal’s infrastructure development and economic growth.
Indian assistance has been received in projects related to transport, energy and education. A significant number of Nepalese nationals work in India, and remittances sent back home play an important role in Nepal’s economy. These remittances contribute to household income and the overall economy. Some critics argue that this could hamper India’s influence on Nepal’s political and economic decisions.
They argue that Nepal’s sovereignty and economic independence cannot be compromised due to its close relationship with India. Nepal has a trade deficit with India, as it imports more goods than it exports.
This trade imbalance can adversely affect Nepal’s economy, foreign exchange reserves and economic stability. Historical disputes on the Nepal-India border and occasional blockades have hampered trade and caused economic hardship in Nepal. These events have strained relationships and had negative economic consequences. Nepal’s economic dependence on India for trade, energy, and infrastructure projects can create vulnerabilities.
By diversifying its economic partners, it can increase Nepal’s economic resilience by reducing its dependence on a single country. It is important to note that the relationship between Nepal and India is multifaceted and not determined solely by economic factors. Political, cultural and strategic considerations also play an important role.
India is currently reeling from the results of the general elections, while Nepal is facing various challenges such as reviving its economy and resolving the political impasse.
Amid these controversies, the Nepal Communist-led coalition government supported by the UML has taken a controversial decision to print 100 rupee notes with a new map of Nepal. Whether this decision has caused some diplomatic disputes with India, remains to be seen.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.
Login to add a comment